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Does NATO formally admit at least one new member state in 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026 2,100 traders Official market Opened Apr 3, 2026

38¢

YES Price

—

62¢

NO Price

—

¢ 28M

¢ Pool

Total staked

244d

Days Left

Dec 31, 2026

Probability Chart

YES 38% NO 62%

¢ 10,640,000 on YES ¢ 17,360,000 on NO

About This Market

NATO has been expanding at a historically rapid pace. Several nations remain in various stages of the accession pipeline. Markets give a 38% probability of NATO formally admitting at least one new member state through the official accession process in 2026.

Resolution Criteria

YES if: NATO formally admits at least one new member state in 2026 through the official accession process.

NO if: No new country joins NATO in 2026.

Sources: NATO official · Reuters · BBC · European Council records ·

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