🌐 Other
Does the Iran-Israel conflict formally end by December 31, 2026?
71¢
YES Price
—
29¢
NO Price
—
¢ 82M
¢ Pool
Total staked
244d
Days Left
Dec 31, 2026
Probability Chart
About This Market
The Iran-Israel conflict that escalated dramatically in early 2026 has been one of the most significant geopolitical events of the decade. Markets give a 71% probability that a formal end or significant de-escalation is declared by year-end 2026.
Resolution Criteria
YES if: A formal peace agreement, armistice, or official cessation of hostilities between Iran and Israel is declared by December 31, 2026.
NO if: The Iran-Israel conflict continues without a formal end being declared by December 31, 2026.
Sources:
UN Security Council ·
US State Department ·
Reuters ·
BBC ·
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