🌐 Other

Is a US-Iran ceasefire holding by June 30, 2026?

Resolves Jun 30, 2026 7,100 traders Proposed by admin Opened Apr 3, 2026

57¢

YES Price

—

43¢

NO Price

—

¢ 95M

¢ Pool

Total staked

-79d

Days Left

Jun 30, 2026

Probability Chart

YES 57% NO 43%

¢ 54,150,000 on YES ¢ 40,850,000 on NO

About This Market

Following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran in early 2026, ceasefire negotiations have been active. Markets currently give a 57% probability that a formal ceasefire agreement is in place and holding by June 30, 2026 — a significant milestone in de-escalation.

Resolution Criteria

YES if: A formal US-Iran ceasefire agreement is established and holding as of June 30, 2026.

NO if: No US-Iran ceasefire is established, or any existing ceasefire collapses before June 30, 2026.

Sources: US State Department · UN · Reuters · AP · BBC ·

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