🌐 Other
Does China take military action against Taiwan in 2026?
12¢
YES Price
—
88¢
NO Price
—
¢ 65M
¢ Pool
Total staked
244d
Days Left
Dec 31, 2026
Probability Chart
About This Market
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait remain elevated. While a full-scale invasion is considered unlikely in the near term, markets assign a 12% probability of China taking some form of military action against Taiwan — including naval blockades or missile strikes — during 2026.
Resolution Criteria
YES if: China conducts military strikes, a naval blockade, or initiates a military invasion of Taiwan in 2026.
NO if: China does not take direct military action against Taiwan in 2026.
Sources:
US State Department ·
Pentagon ·
Reuters ·
BBC ·
Taipei Times ·
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