🗳️ Politics

Does the Iranian regime fall by December 31, 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026 5,900 traders Official market Opened Apr 3, 2026

28¢

YES Price

—

72¢

NO Price

—

¢ 78M

¢ Pool

Total staked

244d

Days Left

Dec 31, 2026

Probability Chart

YES 28% NO 72%

¢ 21,840,000 on YES ¢ 56,160,000 on NO

About This Market

Following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran in early 2026, significant internal political pressure has mounted on the Islamic Republic. Markets currently price a 28% chance of regime change before year-end — reflecting both the severity of the pressure and the regime's historical resilience.

Resolution Criteria

YES if: The current Iranian government collapses or a new government takes power by December 31, 2026.

NO if: The current Iranian regime remains in power through December 31, 2026.

Sources: Reuters · BBC · AP · US State Department · UN records ·

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