💰 Economy

Does the US trade deficit hit a new record in 2026?

Resolves Feb 15, 2027 2,100 traders Proposed by admin Opened Apr 3, 2026

54¢

YES Price

—

46¢

NO Price

—

¢ 28M

¢ Pool

Total staked

290d

Days Left

Feb 15, 2027

Probability Chart

YES 54% NO 46%

¢ 15,120,000 on YES ¢ 12,880,000 on NO

About This Market

The US trade deficit has been widening amid tariff uncertainty and a surge in front-loaded imports. Markets give a 54% probability that the US Census Bureau reports a record monthly trade deficit at some point in 2026 — driven by businesses stockpiling goods ahead of further tariff hikes.

Resolution Criteria

YES if: The US Census Bureau reports a record monthly trade deficit at any point in 2026.

NO if: The US trade deficit does not reach a new record level in 2026.

Sources: US Census Bureau · BEA · Bloomberg · Reuters ·

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