💰 Economy
Does the United States enter a recession in 2026?
41¢
YES Price
—
59¢
NO Price
—
¢ 72M
¢ Pool
Total staked
244d
Days Left
Dec 31, 2026
Probability Chart
About This Market
With rising tariffs, Fed policy uncertainty and slowing GDP growth, recession fears have intensified in 2026. Markets currently give a 41% probability of a US recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth — occurring this year.
Resolution Criteria
YES if: The US economy records two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2026 (technical recession).
NO if: The US economy avoids a technical recession in 2026.
Sources:
BEA.gov ·
IMF ·
Federal Reserve ·
Bloomberg Economics ·
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