💰 Economy
Do US-China tariffs fall below 100% by end of 2026?
39¢
YES Price
—
61¢
NO Price
—
¢ 62M
¢ Pool
Total staked
244d
Days Left
Dec 31, 2026
Probability Chart
About This Market
Following the Trump administration's sweeping tariff escalation on Chinese goods — with rates now reaching 145% after multiple rounds of hikes in 2025-26 — markets give a 39% probability of negotiations leading to a meaningful reduction before year-end. A return below 100% would signal a significant de-escalation.
Resolution Criteria
YES if: The average US tariff rate on Chinese imports drops below 100% through official government action before December 31, 2026.
NO if: US tariffs on Chinese goods remain at 100% or above through December 31, 2026.
Sources:
USTR.gov ·
Reuters ·
Bloomberg ·
South China Morning Post ·
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