💰 Economy

Does a US Federal debt ceiling crisis occur in 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026 3,400 traders Proposed by JinjaPundit Opened Apr 3, 2026

32¢

YES Price

—

68¢

NO Price

—

¢ 45M

¢ Pool

Total staked

244d

Days Left

Dec 31, 2026

Probability Chart

YES 32% NO 68%

¢ 14,400,000 on YES ¢ 30,600,000 on NO

About This Market

The US federal debt ceiling has been a recurring political flashpoint. With the current debt trajectory and a divided political environment, markets assign a 32% probability of a significant debt ceiling crisis in 2026 — including potential shutdown warnings, default risk, or a failure to act in time.

Resolution Criteria

YES if: A US Federal debt ceiling crisis occurs in 2026 (government shutdown, default warning, or failure to raise or suspend the ceiling on time).

NO if: The debt ceiling is raised or suspended without a significant crisis in 2026.

Sources: US Treasury.gov · Congressional Budget Office · Reuters · Politico ·

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