💰 Economy
Does the US unemployment rate exceed 5% by December 2026?
33¢
YES Price
—
67¢
NO Price
—
¢ 42M
¢ Pool
Total staked
254d
Days Left
Jan 10, 2027
Probability Chart
About This Market
US unemployment has been creeping higher amid economic uncertainty and ongoing structural changes in the labour market. Markets assign a 33% probability of the headline unemployment rate rising above 5% by the December 2026 jobs report.
Resolution Criteria
YES if: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a headline unemployment rate above 5% for December 2026.
NO if: US unemployment remains at 5% or below in the December 2026 report.
Sources:
BLS.gov ·
Federal Reserve ·
Bloomberg Economics ·
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