💰 Economy

Does the United Kingdom enter a recession in 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026 2,900 traders Proposed by MakerereOracle Opened Apr 3, 2026

46¢

YES Price

—

54¢

NO Price

—

¢ 38M

¢ Pool

Total staked

244d

Days Left

Dec 31, 2026

Probability Chart

YES 46% NO 54%

¢ 17,480,000 on YES ¢ 20,520,000 on NO

About This Market

The UK economy has been struggling with elevated inflation and weak growth. Markets give a 46% probability of the UK recording two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2026 — constituting a technical recession that would pile pressure on the Starmer government.

Resolution Criteria

YES if: The UK economy records two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2026.

NO if: The UK economy avoids a technical recession in 2026.

Sources: ONS.gov.uk · Bank of England · IMF · Bloomberg ·

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