💰 Economy
Does US CPI inflation drop below 2% by December 2026?
35¢
YES Price
—
65¢
NO Price
—
¢ 55M
¢ Pool
Total staked
259d
Days Left
Jan 15, 2027
Probability Chart
About This Market
The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target remains elusive with CPI running above it in early 2026. Markets assign a 35% probability of inflation returning to the target zone by the December 2026 CPI reading — a number that would give the Fed meaningful room to cut rates.
Resolution Criteria
YES if: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a CPI year-over-year rate below 2% for December 2026.
NO if: US CPI remains at 2% or above in the December 2026 reading.
Sources:
BLS.gov ·
Federal Reserve ·
Bloomberg ·
Reuters ·
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